2016 preview: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (2016)

In a nutshell…

For the previous decade, Manly had been playing finals football and 2015 was expected to be a continuation of that. But a horror injury run, massive off-field distractions, particularly around the contracts of Test halves Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans, and the future of head coach Geoff Toovey put paid to their 10-season streak. Ultimately, Manly won just four of their first 14 games and sat at the bottom of the ladder. An end of season run which saw them finish just one win shy of eighth-placed St George Illawarra. They’ve had plenty of changes to their roster in preparation for a return to the September action in 2016 as Trent Barrett takes the coaching reins.

Recruitment

Gains: Lewis Brown (Penrith), Fabian Goodall (Parramatta), Nathan Green (St.George-Illawarra), Isaac John (Penrith), Apisai Koroisau (Penrith), Darcy Lussick (Parramatta), Tim Moltzen (Wests Tigers), Nate Myles (Gold Coast), Matt Parcell (Brisbane), Martin Taupau (Wests Tigers), Dylan Walker (South Sydney), John Walker (Rugby Union), Tom Wright (Rugby Union)

Losses: Matt Ballin (Wests Tigers), Cheyse Blair (Melbourne), Michael Chee-Kam (Wests Tigers), Kieran Foran (Parramatta), Clinton Gutherson (Parramatta), James Hasson (Parramatta), Peta Hiku (Penrith), Justin Horo (Catalan Dragons), Jack Littlejohn (Wests Tigers), Dunamis Lui (St.George-Illawarra), Willie Mason (Catalan Dragons), Will Pearsall (Newcastle), Ligi Sao (New Zealand Warriors), Jesse Sene Lefao (Cronulla), David Williams (retired)

Manly’s roster has had its biggest shake-up since 2004. The changes have been measured and well thought out, adding some much needed starch to their depth, especially up front and in the halves.

  

Backs

Despite the numerous roster changes, the Sea Eagles backline has lost just Peta Hiku, which is a big loss, but young Tom Trbojevic impressed last year and is expected to be even better this year; the teenage flyer will grab a wing spot, but is also Brett Stewart’s fullback understudy. Manly have won 48% of games when Jamie Lyon hasn’t been available, compared to just under 65% when he has played. If the evergreen 34-year-old stays fit, Manly become a much more dangerous outfit.

Halves

With Foran gone and no genuine replacement for him brought to the club, Manly it seems will have Dylan Walker at five-eighth, playing practically as a roving third centre, while Cherry-Evans will be playing both sides of the field, harking back to the days of past halfbacks like Peter Sterling. It will be a tall order for DCE, but he’s a quality player and this could see him hit some career-best form. Isaac John, Tim Moltzen, Tom Wright and Lyon are No.6 options if the Walker experiment fails.  

  

Forwards

Manly’s forwards bear nearly no resemblance to the pack they used in 2015. The side now has the more creative dummy-half rotation in the Koroisau-Parcell double-act, with Ballin now at Wests Tigers, while new recruits Nate Myles, Lewis Brown and Martin Tapau bring some much-needed grunt in attack and defence, as well as some quality ball-playing forwards who can cover both the backrow and front-row roles. Boom prop Jake Trbojevic, the club’s Player of the Year in 2015, will go to another level with those types around him.

Trump cards

Brett Stewart: Even at 31 years of age, Stewart still moves quite spritely and still knows how to score a try. With Josh Dugan looking to be a centre in 2016, Stewart may very well be eyeing off a return to the State of Origin arena. The 2015 seasson saw him back to his tryscoring best, crossing for 16 tries, the most since his 2008 tally of 22. With DCE working both sides of the field, Stewart could well be hanging around him constantly and scoring plenty of meat pies in the process.

Nate Myles: The Queensland Origin star will add some urgently required starch and leadership to a revamped Manly pack. His ability to play anywhere in the forwards is a huge asset for Manly considering the new interchange rule changes. Myles is going to form a strong combination with DCE.

Under the pump

Daly Cherry-Evans: After a season full of distractions and disappointments, DCE will be looking to focus on playing good footy and winning games. He will have a bigger workload in 2016, but he is more than capable of handling it. The dumped Queensland Origin star will need a big effort for the whole season from his forwards if he is to make his new roving role a success.

Tom Symonds: The talented backrower is now among some quality players in Taupau, Brown, Mateo and Myles. He has shown for a few seasons now that he is definitely deserving of a place in the run-on side, but if his form wavers, he could find himself fighting to stay in the side.

X-factors

Martin Taupau: The beastly power of Taupau is going to be devastating wide of the ruck, running off DCE and Jamie Lyon. His big fend and offload makes this hard-running powerhouse even harder to keep under wraps. Look for Dylan Walker to be sniffing around looking for a Taupau offload.

Apisai Koroisau and Matt Parcell: The clever No.9 brings a new dimension to the Manly style of play of previous seasons. With only one ball-playing half, the signature of Koroisau was a masterful stroke by Manly, as he can play first receiver, while also being an effective dummy half runner, all of which will help to relieve some pressure off DCE. Meanwhile, ex-Bronco Parcell – who scored a ridiculous five tries in a Queensland Cup semi last year – is a livewire with stunning pace off the mark.

Achilles heel

Lack of combinations early in the season. With so many new players coming in – and a new coach in Barrett – it will take some time for the revamped line-up to click.

2015 Stats Leaders

Tries: Brett Stewart – 16

Try Assists: Daly Cherry-Evans – 18

Line-breaks: Jorge Taufua – 14

Tackle-breaks: Jorge Taufua – 54

Average metres: Jorge Taufua – 136.2

Average tackles: Matt Ballin – 40.1

  

Goalkicking

Jamie Lyon will again retain the goalkicking duties. He can run hot and cold off the tee at times, but generally is quite reliable. Feleti Mateo has kicked 7 from 9 goals in his career (5 from 5 attempts last year), while Steve Matai is also available. However, the hit-man’s his record isn’t quite as flattering, with 21 career goals from 36 attempts.

The coach

Trent Barrett takes over the reins at Manly after club legend Geoff Toovey was given the boot after four seasons. Barrett has coached the Country side since 2014 and has worked as an NRL assistant, most recently at Penrith. He is untested and so will be under a lot of pressure from a club that expects success.

The captain

The mecurial Jamie Lyon will again be captain, after first receiving the job back in 2010 in tandem with Jason King. He’s a born leader and a class act.

Rep drain

Daly Cherry-Evans was the only Manly play to feature in Origin last year, however in 2016, Nate Myles will be lining up alongside DCE for the Maroons, while Dylan Walker, Brett Stewart and even the Trbojevic brothers could find themselves in the Blues squad.

The draw

Manly will play arguably the two weakest sides of 2016, Gold Coast and Wests Tigers, only once throughout the year. They will play just once against powerhouse sides Sydney Roosters, Brisbane and Melbourne. The run home is an awkward one for Manly, who will travel to play North Queensland, Warriors (played in Perth), Souths, Parramatta, Canterbury and Penrith, while hosting Melbourne in Round 24.

Big clash

Round 1 against the Bulldogs: Manly has a very tough start to the season and a tricky run home, so they need to get plenty of early wins, which are going to have to come against quality title contenders. After their first clash they play: Tigers (A), Cronulla (H), Sydney (A), Souths (H), Warriors (A), Parramatta (H), Newcastle (A) North Queensland (H), Broncos (H) and Cronulla (A) before the first bye. They need to hit the ground running as they will not get much chance to play themselves into form.

Best line-up

1.Brett Stewart, 2. Jorge Taufua, 3. Jamie Lyon, 4. Steve Matai, 5. Tom Trbojevic, 6. Dylan Walker, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8.Jake Trbojevic, 9. Apisai Koroisau, 10. Nate Myles, 11. Tom Symonds, 12. Lewis Brown, 13. Martin Taupau. Int: 14. Matt Parcell, 15. Darcy Lussick, 16. Luke Burgess, 17. Feleti Mateo.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

2016 preview: North Queensland Cowboys (2016)

In a nutshell…

Despite a slow start and an at-times inconsistent post-Origin period, North Queensland finally delivered on their ample potential and scored their first ever premiership in one of the greatest grand finals in the game’s history. In 2016 they will no longer be the underdog, instead they will be out to try and do what hasn’t been done in a full competition since 1993: win back-to-back premierships.

Recruitment

Gains: Shaun Hudson (Gold Coast), Jahrome Hughes (Townsville Blackhawks)

Losses: Viliame Kikau (Penrith), Cameron King (Parramatta), Glenn Hall (retired), Robert Lui (Salford Reds), Hezron Murgha (Townsville Blackhawks), Kelepi Tanginoa (Parramatta), Scott Schulte (Parramatta)

The Cowboys have not felt the need to enhance their squad any further – and who could blame them. They have only lost some depth players who barely had any game time last year.

  

Backs

When Matt Bowen left the club, you would have been excused for thinking the Cowboys would struggle to find a replacement who could have an impact in their own right, while also forming a strong combination with Jonathan Thurston. But they did in Lachlan Coote, who just seemed to get better every week in a spectacular comeback from a knee injury.

The backline also has plenty of speed and tryscoring ability. Winterstein (16 tries), O’Neill (13) and Linnett (10) are capable finishers, which gives the Cowboys great options on both sides of the field, while Kyle Feldt’s grand final heroics cemented his wing spot. Matthew Wright and the luckless Tautau Moga are also in the mix, while freakishly talented youngsters Kalyn Ponga and Gideon Gela-Mosby could see first grade this year.

Halves

While Thurston was named the Golden Boot recipient for the third time, as the world’s best player, he was almost overshadowed by the form of Michael Morgan – who made a sensational switch from fullback to the No.6 – in 2015. This in itself gave opponents two headaches on either side of the field and also meant less pressure heaped on JT.

  

Forwards

North Queensland have a very strongpack in both the front and backrow. The power of Tamou and Scott, the flair of Granville at hooker, the good hole-running ability of Cooper and the consistency of Lowe. Throw inthe rampagingTaumaloloat lock,and a bench consisting ofHannant, Asiata, Bolton and Kostjasyn and you have a balancedforward pack and good depth as well.Young buck Coen Hess is tipped for big things.

Trump cards

Michael Morgan: Had an awesome season where he earned an Origin debut and brought a second dimension to the Cowboys’ style. He scored plenty of tries but set up even more, he has tremendous speed and strength which he used to get outside his defender time and again last year – never better evidenced than when he set up the last-second try in the grand final.

Jake Granville: 2015 was a breakout year for the unwanted Bronco, who took over in the Cowboys’ troublesome hooker role, turning it from a headache into an amazing asset. He will once again be vital to Thurtson getting good clean ball with time and space to do what he does best. Granville has speed out of dummy half, powerful running forwards all around him and the brilliance of Thurston at first receiver. It takes a quality player to make the most of such riches and to play in such a way that makes all these great players look better, which is exactly what Granville did in 2015. His service is what Thurston and Morgan rely immensely upon.

Under the pump

Jason Taumalolo: The big youngster has held down a back row gig in the back row for the past two seasons with little threat until the emergence of John Asiata last year. Expect both to have stronger seasons than last year as they both try to squeeze into the run-on side.

Lachlan Coote: Throughout his unfortunately injury-riddled career, we all saw glimpses of what Coote was capable of when fully fit. In 2015 he finally rid himself of the injury curse and turned out some truly masterful performances. This year it is even more vital to the Cowboys that the off-contract custodian keeps that form going.  

X-factors

Johnathan Thurston: He’s the world’s best player. Pinpoint kicking, amazing goal kicker, brilliant passing game. Like all the greats, he looks like he has all the time in the world. The form of Morgan last year took a lot of pressure off Thurston, which allowed him more freedom as well as not receiving so much defensive pressure as in the past. He now gets to choose when he wants the ball, instead of it always going to him.

The premiers curse: Carrying their full grand final 17 into their title defence – something that hasn’t been done since 1983 – means the Cowboys are as well-placed as any champion of the NRL era to go back-to-back. But there is a target on their heads and 22 failed defences suggesting that it can’t be done in this day and age.

Achilles heel

State of Origin: Losing both their halves and both props is an immense hurdle to overcome for any side, but it’s magnified for the Cowboys given the quality of players they lose and their style of play which rolls off the back of good early momentum created by the pack.

2015 Stats Leaders

Tries: Antonio Winterstein – 16

Try Assists: Jonathan Thurston – 33

Line-breaks: Michael Morgan – 20

Tackle-breaks: Jason Taumololo – 75

Average metres: Jason Taumololo – 154.1

Average tackles: Ethan Lowe – 35.2

  

Goalkicking

Thurston is one of the best there is, kicking at nearly 79% in his career. In his absence, Ethan Lowe has a respectable 15 goals from 21 attempts at 71.43% in his career. Kyle Feldt is also available but hasn’t had much success yet with the goal kicking duties.

The coach

Paul Green is an unassuming type of coach. He knows how to get the team working as unit and not simply as a ball delivery service for Thurston. He has helped Morgan’s game immensely which has made a massive difference to the team’s style of play and ultimately, success. With two Queensland Cup premierships at Wynnum Manly, an assistant role in the Roosters’ 2013 triumph and helming the Cowboys’ maiden title after just two years as an NRL head coach, Green could develop into a giant of modern coaching.

The captains

Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston will continue their roles as co-captains. They complement each other well and their teammates will follow them into any battle.

Rep drain

Thurston, Scott, Morgan and Tamou all played Origin last year and would all be very likely to do so again in 2016, while Granville, Feldt, Lowe, O’Neill and Coote could be considered outside chances if injuries fall their way.

The draw

North Queensland now know that being premiers does not earn you an easy draw. The play the top 9 teams from last year twice, as well as a hugely improved Parramatta outfit. It will certainly make their quest to repeat last year’s glory far more difficult. They don’t face any of 2015’s bottom four teams until their Round 13 clash with Newcastle. Even then, they don’t meet another of those sides until Round 22, which is against the Tigers at Leichhardt, where the Cowboys have not won since 2000 (the only time they have won there in eight games since 1995).

Big clash

Round 20 against the Bulldogs. While it is a home game for the Cowboys it is the start of the run to the finals – and their run is tricky with games against Storm (H), Tigers (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A) before a last-round clash with the Titans at home.

Best line-up

1. Lachlan Coote, 2. Antonio Winterstein, 3. Kane Linnett, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Kyle Feldt, 6. Michael Morgan, 7. Johnathan Thurston, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Jake Granville, 10. James Tamou, 11. Ethan Lowe, 12. Gavin Cooper, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Int: 14. John Asiata, 15. Ben Hannant, 16. Scott Bolton, 17. Rory Kostjasyn.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

2016 preview: South Sydney Rabbitohs (2016)

In a nutshell…

South Sydney went from being a dominating powerhouse in 2014 to a side that meekly whimpered out of contention of similar glory in 2015. They rose to fourth on the ladder and looked set for another genuine tilt at premiership glory, only to find themselves copping three consecutive drubbings to round out the season, before Cronulla humiliated them in the first week of the finals. Souths fans will see the return of Sam Burgess, but have lost quality first graders in Issac Luke, Glenn Stewart, Chris McQueen and Dylan Walker.

Recruitment

Gains: Sam Burgess (Rugby Union), Damien Cook (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Hymel Hunt (Melbourne Storm), Dane Nielsen (St.George-Illawarra), Michael Oldfield (Catalan Dragons)

Losses: Tim Grant (Wests Tigers), Ben Lowe (retired), Issac Luke (Warriors), Chris McQueen (Titans), Daryl Millard (released), Joel Reddy (released), Glenn Stewart (Catalan Dragons), Dylan Walker (Sea Eagles)

Souths have lost a lot of quality in the forwards with only Sam Burgess being brought into the side. The loss of Issac Luke will be covered by talented junior Cameron McInnes and new recruit Damien Cook. Tim Grant and Glenn Stewart depart after just one season, while long-serving Chris McQueen made way for Burgess’ return.

  

Backs

Any side containing Greg Inglis with room to move is always going to have one of the best backlines in the game. The Rabbitohs lost quality centre Dylan Walker to Manly and have also had to release some depth players, which could be problematic if injuries become a factor. Solid enough first-choice three-quarter line with Kirsome Auva’a and Bryson Goodwin lining up in the centres, and Alex Johnston and Aaron Gray the likely wingers.

Halves

Adam Reynolds suffered a horror season with injuries in 2015 and he will be looking to put that year behind him and push towards directing South Sydney back into the Grand Final and personally, towards a State of Origin berth. His halves partner Luke Keary had a strong season where he played in 24 of the clubs 25 games. New recruit Cody Walker starred in the Charity Shield and will line up in Round 1 with Keary suspended.

  

Forwards

The return of Sam Burgess is an immense boost to a Souths pack that was indifferent at times throughout 2015. His return though came at a cost, with a number of players forced out to accommodate him, most notably back rower Chris McQueen. Glenn Stewart has also departed the club along with depth forwards Tim Grant and Ben Lowe. The Rabbitohs have talented youngsters Nathan Brown and Paul Carter who will be more than keen to step up. 

Trump cards

Adam Reynolds: His magnificent kicking game and ability to lead his side around the park was sorely missed at times during 2015, but with his injuries behind him, he will be hoping to get back to his 2014 form.

Alex Johnston: Had a stellar season in 2015, which saw him make his test debut. He has scored 38 tries in his 43 career games, showcasing his amazing ability as a finisher. 2015 also saw him capably cover at fullback.

Under the pump

Luke Keary: After a well-documented pre-season blow-up with owner Russell Crowe, the five-eighth is reportedly shopping himself around – but a Round 1 suspension has opened up an opportunity for Cody Walker. The disgruntled Keary could find himself on the outer with coach Michael Maguire if Walker makes the most of a long-awaited NRL opportunity.

Cameron McInnes: The young hooker will go from being the understudy to the experienced Issac Luke, to the starting rake. He will need to form good combinations with his halves Keary and Reynolds and key players Inglis and Burgess, if he is to have a similar impact of his predecessor. Making his job tougher will be the recruitment of the talented Damien Cook, who impressed as the backup hooker at the Bulldogs last year.

Paul Carter: The impressive and skilful back rower could be set to become a regular member of the starting back row, where his strong running will see him fit seamlessly into the Souths pack. Has had his share of off-field problems, but 2016 could be a breakout year for Carter.

X-factors

Greg Inglis: The elusive, powerful running and fending of Inglis is near impossible to contain, but when you add his ability to pass, kick, create and position his team mates, he makes any backline look sublime. He seems entirely unfazed by the pressures placed upon him which only serves to add to his amazing ability.

Sam Burgess: The versatile forward can play as a wide running back rower and as a straight running prop. Fearless, tough and powerful, he is also capable of being a link player between the halves and the backs making him very hard to contain.

Achilles heel

Depth. Souths used just 26 players in 2015, however they have lost 8 regular first graders and brought in just 4. The club will be relying on untried youngsters more than they have in the past 2 years if their luck with injuries runs out in 2016.

2015 Stats Leaders

Tries: Alex Johnston – 17

Try Assists: Greg Inglis – 13

Line-breaks: Alex Johnston – 21

Tackle-breaks: Greg Inglis – 78

Average metres: Greg Inglis – 145.4

Average tackles: Glenn Stewart – 37.9

  

Goalkicking

Adam Reynolds has kicked 345 goals at 84.15% in his four-season career, placing him at the very top of the goal kickers list in regards to conversion rates. The only issue for Souths is a lack of a backup kicker, with Inglis (9/16 career goals) and Sutton (7/12 career) as the only other players in the squad to have ever kicked goals in the NRL.

The coach

Ever since Michael Maguire arrived at the Rabbitohs, the club has appeared in 4 straight finals series for the first time since the Clive Churchill coached sides of 1967-72. He is an astute manager of his players and has been capable of getting every ounce out of them for the betterment of the side – but whispers he may be on the outs with the playing group, coupled with last year’s disappointing title defence, has put Maguire under considerable pressure.

The captain

Greg Inglis retains the capataincy and why not, the brilliant back thrives under pressure.

Rep drain

Only Greg Inglis played in State of Origin last year and while he was away, Alex Johnston deputised at fullback for him capably, thus keeping the disruption as minimal as possible considering the size of Inglis’ omission. Johnston could be in line for a NSW debut, however, as could Adam Reynolds with the Laurie Daley’s No.7 options somewhat in disarray. Meanwhile, don’t count McInnes and Cook out of the Blues No.9 discussions.

The draw

The Rabbitohs have a tough draw in 2016 which will see them play all of the 2015 top 8 bar Melbourne and Cronulla twice and of the bottom 8 they will face dramatically improved Manly and Parramatta twice. The two bottom-placed sides of 2015, Wests Tigers and Newcastle, will play Souths twice. Souths will face archrivals the Roosters twice in the first six rounds, before playing both 2015 grand finalists in succession. Their run home was a weak point in 2015 and it doesn’t get any easier this year, facing Melbourne (A), Warriors (A), Cronulla (H), Newcastle (A) and Canterbury (A).

Big clash

The Round 5 clash with Manly at Brookvale. This game is the first of four tough games, three of which are in enemy territory. If they aren’t at their best here, they could very well lose a crippling four in a row. They play Manly (A), Sydney (H), North Queensland (A), Brisbane (A).

Best line-up

1.Greg Inglis 2. Alex Johnston 3. Kirisome Auva’a 4. Bryson Goodwin 5. Aaron Gray 6. Luke Keary 7. Adam Reynolds 8. George Burgess 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Sam Burgess 11. Chris Grevsmuhl 12. Paul Carter 13. John Sutton. Int: 14. Tom Burgess 15. David Tyrrell 16. Jason Clark 17. Damien Cook.

**This article appeared othe Commentary Box Sports Website**