NRL Title Contenders: Gold Coast Titans (2016)

The Titans have all but fallen into the finals on the very last day of competition, but not entirely through their own good work. However, of the last three sides vying for the last place in the top 8, the Titans were arguably the most consistent and deserving.

Why They Can Win

The Underdog Tag – The Titans play a relatively simple and composed style of football. They are a patient side who aren’t afraid to work hard. Because they’ve only just snuck into the top 8, they will be seen as the weakest link and easy beats, compared to the other 7 sides. Complacency is a killer in finals football, and the Titans are a side who do make the most of opportunities provided from teams not taking them seriously.

Why They Can’t

Form. The Titans have just 2 wins and a draw from the 11 games they’ve played against the seven teams above them on the ladder. They beat Canberra back in Round 4 when the Raiders were very inconsistent, and a four point win over Penrith in Round 11. They pulled off a hard fought and very impressive 18 all draw with then competition leaders Cronulla, who had won 15 straight games prior to that game. Since that game though, they have struggled, winning 2 of 5 games, against the Tigers by 1 point and the last placed Newcastle by 20.

Key Player

Ashley Taylor. The rookie halfback has been nothing short of impressive this year. Thrown in the deep end at the start of the season when first choice half Kane Elgey suffered a season ending knee injury before their first game, the young half has improved immensely this year and has steered his side around the park very well. He has formed a good combination with new recruit Tyrone Roberts.

Squad Health

The Titans have a few injuries to key playmakers, however some of them have been missing all year and they have managed to reach the finals largely without them. Nathan Davis (leg), Kane Elgey (knee), Karl Lawton (leg), Daniel Mortimer (hamstring) and Matt Srama (knee) are all out for the season.

Finals Record

The Titans have only appeared in 4 finals matches to date, losing two games in the 2009 series. They last appeared in the 2010 series where they won their opening game against the Warriors before losing their last finals game to the Roosters.

Run Home

The Titans come up against Brisbane on Friday night to open the finals series. Their record against the Broncos is very poor, having won just 5 of their 20 clashes. It’s even worse when playing at Suncorp, where despite winning their first game against the Broncos there, they have lost the last nine straight, with the last seven losses all being by a margin of at least 14 points.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Penrith Panthers (2016)

The Panthers boast the second youngest side in the competition this year (behind only the last placed Knights) and had an inconsistent season up until Round 19 when their win against rivals Parramatta was the start of a strong surge towards the finals which has seen them clinch seventh position and qualify for the finals.

Why They Can Win

Utility Value. The Panthers have had arguably the most disruptive season to their spine of all clubs this year. They’ve used 4 different fullbacks, 5 five-eighths, 3 halfbacks and 4 hookers. Since they finally found a combination that worked, they have won 6 of their last 7 games. They boast some of the best young talent in the game who are very versatile players, headed by Bryce Cartwright, they also have Tyrone Peachey, James Fisher-Harris, Zak Hardaker and Matt Moylan.

Why They Can’t

Inexperience. Just 4 members of their current squad are aged older than 26, with Peter Wallace the only player in his 30’s (he turns 31 in October). Nathan Cleary is only 18 yet has had a stellar season at halfback. His five-eighth is the supremely talented 21 year old Bryce Cartwright. Such inexperience in the vital playmaking positions is their biggest hurdle in the most vital area.

Key Player

Bryce Cartwright. The youngster is a back rower who has really found himself at home at five-eighth. He runs straight and hard when he needs to, but has the deft passing game required of any genuinely talented five-eighth. He has also helped to sure up the Panthers edge defence. 10 of their first 16 games saw the Panthers concede 20 points or more. The most they’ve conceded in the last 7 games is 20 points against the Warriors.

Squad Health

Penrith have been without their starting centres for most of the year. Dean Whare and Peta Hiku both suffered season ending knee injuries. Front rower Sam McKendry is also out for the rest of the year with a knee injury while last weekend saw talented young back-rower Reagan Campbell-Gillard cop a heavy knock which has broken two discs in his back.

Finals Record

The Panthers have played 21 finals matches. They have won 10 and lost eleven. This year is just their third finals appearance since 2004. In 2010 they lost both matches and in 2014 the beat the Roosters first up before going down to the Bulldogs 18-12 the following week in what is their last finals performance.

Run Home

Penrith play the last game of Round 26 against the 12^th placed Manly who have lost their last four straight games now. If the Bulldogs lose to Souths and the Panthers beat Manly, Penrith are a strong chance of finishing sixth on the ladder.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Brisbane Broncos (2016)

After their heartbreaking loss in last year’s grand final, the Broncos started the 2016 season with some serious intent to reverse the result. They won eight of their opening 10 games to lead the competition, but the wheels well and truly fell off during the middle of the season, where they won just two of nine games to drop down to sixth place and started looking like they could miss the playoffs altogether. However, Wayne Bennett’s side has rallied with four straight wins to cement their place in the September action and have another tilt at the title.

Why They Can Win
Balance. The Broncos have a long history of being a well-balanced side, across the park in both attack and defence. They have a good mix of experienced stars and exciting younger players. They have also been a team well-stocked with Test reps, and this year’s outfit is no different, sporting six Australian, four New Zealand, two English and one Tongan Test players. That big-game experience is a huge bonus for the Broncos.

Why They Can’t
Inconsistency in the halves. Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford have produced the most erratic form of any halves in the comp. For the opening 10 weeks they were sublime. They were controlling games and steering their side’s attack around beautifully. It was expected things wouldn’t change during the Origin period when both would be playing against depleted outfits, but it was during this time that their red-hot form went ice cold overnight. It took another 10 weeks for them to finally start recovering their early season form. If Hunt and Milford struggle during the finals, they will not be posing a threat to any of the other sides. Their kicking game and fifth-tackle options still need work, while Hunt’s 2015 grand final horror show could provide a mental roadblock if the Broncos make it that far again.

Key Player
Ben Hunt. When he is playing well, the Broncos generally win. He has a great running game and links with his edge runners beautifully. But he has had a knack this year for going off the boil, hard and fast. If the Broncos forwards can lay a solid platform and provide good momentum then Hunt will be able to play to his best.

Squad Health
The Broncos are without the services of centre Jack Reed due to a shoulder injury which he sustained after the Round 13 clash with the Warriors. It is still unclear when he will resume playing, though rookie Tom Opacic is settling into the role superbly. Utility Kodi Nikorima also has a shoulder injury but is expected to be back in Round 26.

Finals Record
Brisbane have played in 53 finals matches, picking up 28 wins and 25 losses. Last year was the club’s first loss in seven grand final appearances. Since last winning the premiership in 2006, the Broncos have won seven and lost seven in the post-season.

Run Home
The Broncos pulled off a momentous upset of the Melbourne Storm in Round 25, while in the final regular-season round the host a Roosters side who only four weeks ago beat them resoundingly, 32-16. The Broncos can snatch fourth spot if they beat the Roosters and the Cowboys go down to Titans, but a week one sudden-death match-up with the Titans or Tigers at Suncorp looms as the most likely outcome.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: North Queensland Cowboys (2016)

The defending champions started the season strongly, and despite losing two of their first four games, they were spirited efforts against strong sides. The Cowboys then won five straight to lead the competition, but since then they have won just seven of 14 games.

Their Round 24 victory over the Warriors was only their second in seven weeks, but that performance – along with a gritty away defeat of Canterbury on Thursday – was a return to their early-season, indicating they are hitting form at the perfect time.

Why They Can Win
They know how. After breaking through for their maiden premiership victory last year, the Cowboys side this year is near identical to last year’s squad. They have experienced players at club and rep level laced throughout the line-up. In the halves are Queensland Origin and Australian Test players Michael Morgan and Johnathan Thurston. The front-row boast Origin and Test stars Matt Scott and James Tamou. The back row consists of veteran and recent Origin debutant Gavin Cooper, and Kiwi Test forward Jason Taumalolo.

The backline contains Maroons centre Justin O’Neill and former Scottish Test player Kane Linnett. Fullback is held down by Lachlan Coote, whose form was so good he was tipped to play Origin this year for New South Wales. Throw in bench players like former Test and Origin rep Ben Hannant and Tongan Test player Patrick Kaufusi, and you have a team that deserves to be considered a favourite to be premiers.

Why They Can’t
Overreliance on their halves. While the Cowboys have arguably the best halves combination in the competition, it therefore means they are the most heavily targeted by opposition defences and attacking back rowers, who make a beeline for them time and again. Despite the club saying that they can win without Thurston, the fact is they very rarely do. This year they have lost all three games he missed, and since 2013, they have won just two of the 11 games Thurston didn’t play. Since coming to the club in 2005, the Cowboys have won 55% of games when Thurston played and 28% when he didn’t. The Cowboys’ strongest asset is also their biggest concern. They need JT on the field if they are to be competitive.

Key Player 
Lachlan Coote. The Cowboys custodian has been able to put an injury-plagued run behind him, culminating in a spectacular season in 2015, carrying that form this season. He provides Thurston with essentially a second five-eighth in attack and is a vital link player. The diminutive Coote has proven to be very capable under the high ball and his positional play is brilliant.

Squad Health 
The Cowboys currently have former Test player Ben Hannant out with a knee injury, while star hooker Jake Granville returned last week from an injured hand. Hannant is expected to return for the last round of the regular season, just in time for the finals.

Finals Record 
The Cowboys have played 20 finals matched, winning 11 and losing nine. They won all three of their four finals matches last year, bouncing back from a week one loss to Brisbane with wins over Cronulla and Melbourne, before defeating the Broncos in the grand final in extra time. Last season marked the first time the Cowboys had progressed beyond week two of the playoffs since 2007.

Run Home
The Cowboys face a difficult last-round assignment to confirm their top-four spot, hosting a Titans side that is playing for a finals berth.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (2016)

All year the Bulldogs have battled with themselves to try and put a run of consistently good performances together. They’ve pulled off some great victories, such as their 18-12 win over Melbourne in Round 6 and a 40-14 walloping of the Broncos in Round 16, but these have been mixed with some scratchy wins and poor losses. They are arguably in their best form of the season now, having won seven of their last nine games which has them sitting fourth on the ladder.

Why They Can Win

Their forwards. The Bulldogs have a huge and aggressive pack, but they aren’t all just bulldozers. They are involved in plays, have a solid passing game and can be found loitering as support players as well. This makes them a handful to contain in the middle and often presents opportunities to their backs. The subtle skill and dynamic impact of James Graham, Sam Kasiano, Greg Eastwood, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson make them a unique team and a hard one to defend against.

Why They Can’t

Inconsistency. All year they have drifted in and out of games, posting big scores like 40 against good defensive units like the Broncos and then a few weeks later, struggling to score 13 points against the weaker defence of the Dragons. They can also let their bundle drop completely despite good form, as seen in Round 20, when the Cowboys beat them 36-0 after the Dogs had won their last four games. Halves Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds, while often brilliant, epitomise that lack of consistency.

Key Player

James Graham. The British prop and Bulldogs captain is a ‘lead by example’ man and he has been in brilliant form all year. He lays the platform via the hard yards up the middle for his fellow big men such as Aiden Tolman, David Klemmer and Sam Kasiano to replicate, which they largely have done. 

This rolling power game up the middle allows the rest of the players time and space on the edges of the ruck to do their thing, while his ball-playing ability renders him arguably the most well-rounded front-rower in the game.

Squad Health

The Bulldogs are only missing back-up centre Chase Stanley for the season with a knee injury.

Finals Record 

The Bulldogs have played 92 Finals games, winning 51 games and losing 41. They have won 11 of their last 19 finals matches, dating back to 2004. The club has a reputation for making deep finals runs, qualifying for grand finals from sixth (1995), ninth (1998) and seventh (2014) since the five-team finals series was abandoned.

Run Home

Despite having two home games to close out the season, the Bulldogs by no means have an easy run. On Thursday night they host the resurgent Cowboys, who will be hoping to swap places with the Bulldogs and get back into the top four. Then in the last round they take on Souths, who have finally found some form of late and have a similarly skilled forward pack and dangerous backs such as Greg Inglis and Alex Johnston. Both games will be hard slogs in the middle and could be quite taxing leading into the finals.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**