Four Nations Masks Stagnant International Game (2016)

International Rugby League at the moment is somewhat farcical. We have a system presently that’s anti-growth and exclusive, where the best teams in the world spend most of their time playing each other.

Since 2001, New Zealand has played 77 Tests – 39 of them against Australia, 10 against England and 13 against Great Britain. Just 15 of those Tests have been played against other Test sides.

It’s a similar trend for Australia, when you look at their record from 2005 until now. They’ve played 56 Tests in that time, 32 of which have been against New Zealand alone, while eight more have been against England and four against Great Britain. They’ve played just 12 times against other nations.

In the past, the onus was on the British, Australian and New Zealand sides to spread the game around their own country and the world – take it to new areas. This saw the game spread like wildfire through France in the mid 1930s.

The game was being proposed to be taken to the USA as far back as 1910 when NSWRL Secretary Edward Larkin first proposed the idea. By the 1960s the game had been played at the highest level in South Africa, international matches had been played in Italy by Australia, and an exhibition game between Australia and New Zealand had been played Stateside.

Tour games even went to new horizons. Every nation was working towards building and expanding the game and, sure, in some cases it didn’t work as well as in others, but the effort was being made.

Today, though, it seems that International football has become a do-or-die system, where nations that can afford to help and promote the game in emerging nations simply don’t bother. Presently we are in the middle of a Four Nations competition which, if we’re honest, is a glorified tri-series that offers a condescending moment in the sun for one nation, while they get beaten comprehensively by the three main sides.

More needs to be done by the three superpowers to promote the game – and it shouldn’t be too hard a task.

Australia, New Zealand and England seemingly have no interest in returning to the tours of the past, which were magnificent for promoting the game in new regions and were the highlight of most representative stars’ careers, instead opting for the simpler and more boring Four Nations, where we see the same three sides playing all the time.

Why not have two separate Four Nations competitions: one for Pacific teams and one for European Teams?

This would at least get more nations involved on the big stage on a more regular basis which could only be a good thing for the game. And let every nation have first choice over which players they will select, leave the rest for the three major nations to choose from. It will bring Australia, New Zealand and England back to the field a little and improve all the other nations significantly.

Samoa, Fiji and Tonga have made giant strides in recent years, yet Samoa – so impressive in the 2014 Four Nations – have not been grant a Test against one of the ‘Big Three’ in the two years since, while Fiji and Tonga will have had no internationals against the heavyweights between the 2013 and ’17 World Cups.

If something different doesn’t happen soon, then people will grow tired of watching Australia and New Zealand play each other all the time. And once the major sides stop getting interest at the international level, we then have a major issue that will impact all nations that may not be easy to reverse.

****This article appeared on Commentary Box Sports website on  November 11, 2016****

Finding The Contenders 'Sweet Spot' (2016)

There’s a scoreline every club gets to where they seemingly know – or perhaps it’s just a statistical phenomenon – that they are unbeatable from. With the finals in the do-or-die stages, this sweet spot becomes a vitally important number, as it signifies a point where success is virtually guaranteed.

The following data is based on the last 50 games for each of the remaining finalists. All of these sides, with the exception of Penrith, have a success rate of at least 56 percent. Penrith’s is at 48 percent.

Melbourne – 14
Last 50 games – Round 2, 2015 to Finals week 1, 2016
Won 34, Lost 16 = 68%

Melbourne has not won a game when they have scored less than 14 points. Ten of their 16 losses have come when they have failed to reach 14 points. After this point they have won 36 games and lost just 6. The Storm’s highest losing score is 22, which happened twice: against Manly in Round 2, 2015 (lost 24-22) and against Parramatta in Round 14, 2015 (lost 26-22). Since then, their highest losing score has been 16.

Melbourne’s win percentage over the last 50 games reaches 50% when they score 20 points. They have scored 30-38 points 7 times, 40-49 points 3 times and 50+ once.

24 of Melbourne’s last 50 scores fall between 14 and 22 points.

Canberra – 21
Last 50 games – Round 26, 2014 to Finals week 1, 2016
Won 28, Drawn 1, Lost 21 = 56%

The Raiders are an impeccable pointscoring machine, however they seem incapable of grinding out low-scoring wins. They have scored 20 points or less on 18 occasions and lost every time. However, once they pass 20 points they have won 28 games, drawn one and lost just 3 times. The highest score Canberra tallied yet still lost was 34 against the Bulldogs in Round 11, 2015 (they lost 41-34). Since then it drops down to 24.

Canberra’s win percentage over the last 50 games reaches 50% when they score 38. They have scored 30-39 points 12 times, 40-49 points twice, 50-59 points 3 times and reached 60 points once.

23 of Canberra’s last 50 scores fall between 20 and 30 points.

Cronulla – 15
Last 50 games – Round 2, 2015 to Finals week 1, 2016
Won 33, Drawn 1, Lost 16 = 66%

The Sharks have long held the title as kings of grinding football, regularly winning games by small margins. This season has seen their attack come to the fore. They have 3 wins and 10 losses when they have scored 14 points or less, but from 15 points onwards they have 30 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. Their highest losing score was 22 against the Titans back in Round 4, 2015. Since then it has been 18.

Cronulla’s win percentage over the last 50 games reaches 50% when they score 25. They have scored 30-39 points 10 times, 40-49 points twice and reached 60 points once.

24 of Cronulla’s last 50 scores fall between 12 and 22 points.

North Queensland – 17
Last 50 games – Round 4, 2015 til Finals week 1, 2016
Won 35, Lost 15 = 70%

The Cowboys are another strong attacking outfit who have haven’t lost once they pass 20 points. They have passed 20 points on 27 occasions, equal with the Broncos and bettered only by Canberra (who have achieved the feat 28 times). Once they reach 17 points they have won 34 games and lost just 4. Their highest losing score was 20 back in Round 4 this year when they lost to Brisbane, 21-20.

The Cowboys’ win percentage over their last 50 games hits 50% when they score 30 points. They have scored 30-39 points 15 times, 40-49 points 5 times and 50+ once.

25 of North Queensland’s last 50 scores fall between 18 and 30 points.

Brisbane – 19
Last 50 games – Round 3, 2015 to Finals week 1, 2016
Won 34, Lost 16 = 68%

The Broncos have a similar record to the Cowboys. Both have six wins when scoring less than 20 points. Brisbane has lost 1 game more though in this period. When Brisbane have scored 19 points or more they have won 28 games and lost just 3. Their highest score when losing was 28 against Cronulla in Round 9 this year. Their next lowest was 22.

Brisbane’s win percentage over their last 50 games reaches 50% when they score 26 points. They have scored 30-39 points 8 times, 40-49 points 6 times and 50+ once. 26 of Brisbane’s last 50 scores fall between 14 and 26 points.

Penrith – 19
Last 50 games – Preliminary Final, 2014 to Finals week 1, 2016
Won 24, Lost 26 = 48%

Penrith have a very poor record when they are kept to 18 points or less, where they have won just two of 23 games. Their form is completely reversed after this point though, where they have 22 wins and 3 losses. Their highest losing score was 26, which they scored when they lost 34-26 to the Wests Tigers in Round 17 this year. They have lost 5 games when scoring 20 points or more.

Penrith’s win percentage over their last 50 games fails to reach 50%, thanks largely to a poor 2015 season. They have scored 30-39 points 7 times, 40-49 points 3 times. Two of those 40-point scorelines have come in the last 5 weeks.

26 of Penrith’s last 50 scores fall between 12 and 24 points.

 ****This article appeared on Commentary Box Sports website on  September 16, 2016****

What Happened To The Sharks? (2017)

If you ask Cronulla Sharks coach Shane Flanagan, the Sharks were destined to go back-to-back and claim top honours again in 2017, making them the first side to do so since the Broncos in 1992-93.

But, in his view, a diabolical performance by the officials cost his side that opportunity.

Did they though?

Every team cops some rough calls through the course of the season, which means every side will get the rub of the green. Some calls have a bigger impact than others undoubtedly. But relying even somewhat on imperfect humans to be perfect so as to get the result you want is essentially quite lazy. Players make mistakes but they aren’t hauled before the media post-match and harangued by their coach for such.

If a coach can accept less than perfection from his players, why do they expect nothing less than perfection from the officials?

The Sharks in 2017 have been a dismal shadow of their all-conquering outfit in 2016. They averaged 3.2 tries per game, down from the 4 per game last year. They averaged 3 runs less per game this year, but still managed to average 25 metres more per game.

Cronulla also averaged nearly a whole try assist less in 2017, over 1 offload less per game, and just over 1 line break assist per game. They were also close to 2 tackle breaks per game worse off in 2017.

Despite making 4 tackles per game more in 2017, they also missed 5 and a half tackles more per game, which saw them make 90.23% of all tackles, better than only Wests Tigers (90.12%), Manly (89.55%) and Penrith (89.45%). The Sharks also had nearly 2 handling errors more per game. Despite conceding less penalties this year, Cronulla were still the most penalised team in the competition, not to mention having the worst completion rate.

Only 5 teams were worse than Sharks when it came to switching off before halftime. The Sharks conceded 24 of their 68 tries in the final 20 minutes of the first half, with just Penrith (25), Wests Tigers (26), Souths & Newcastle (28) and Manly (30) worse. This often saw the Sharks enter the sheds behind on the scoreboard. To their credit they found ways to win as indicated by their competition best record in the second half.

That’s a lot of numbers that show the Sharks played a more restricted style in 2017, a style they abandoned somewhat to great effect in 2016. And sure enough, the return to this style has seen the side return to an early exit in the finals.

Flanagan’s 2017 roster has an average age of 27.59 years old, older than other squad. He has 3 men who all brought up their 300 game milestones this year and just 5 players in his side under the age of 24. His side is naturally going to be the one showing less improvement, as his squad is either at their peak or past their peak. Naturally they are still a very competitive outfit and one of the top teams in the competition, but as the game continues to improve, his side will slowly start to get left behind.

He needs an injection of youth and some ad-lib footy needs to creep into their game to break up the predictability of the machine he has assembled. His side have become easier to compete against in 2017.

None of this is the referee’s fault.