Building a system for International Rugby League rankings

It seems every time the International Rugby League releases its updated International Rankings, people are mystified as to how some sides rank higher than others and more importantly, how the whole thing is even calculated.

It made me wonder if there's a mathematical system one could use to try and rank teams, so I decided to have a go at it. I will get this one statement out of the way early though - I don't think this system is good either, but one thing that is certain is that no system using a mathematical formula will work.

That's because there's been very little structure or purpose behind every match. So you will find some Emerging nations are playing nearly as many Senior International Matches as Australia, New Zealand and England. The attempts by the International Rugby League in more recent seasons to have teams playing Internationals that will affect their ranking, and determine their qualification in the upcoming World Cup is a major step in rectifying this matter.

So this bit of work is based on all International matches between two International sides (so games like Australia's PM XIII v the Papua New Guinea PM XIII are not included) and for all results over the last 10 years (2015-2024). Also, the Great Britain results are added to England, while Tonga Invitational and Tonga are combined.

There are three groups.

Group A - 10 teams - These are the 10 sides who have played in all of the last 5 World Cups:
Australia
England
Fiji
France
Ireland
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Scotland
Tonga 

Group B - 10 teams - These are the next 7 teams who have appeared in the most World Cups since 2008:
Cook Islands
Greece
Italy
Jamaica
Lebanon
USA
Wales

And, the 3 remaining teams in the International Rugby League's top 20 ranked teams not already listed:
Malta
Netherlands
Serbia

Group C - 42 teams - Literally every other nation that has played International Rugby League since 2015:
Albania
Argentina
Belgium
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Burundi
Cameroon
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Czech Republic
Democratic Republic of Congo
Denmark
El Salvador
Germany
Ghana
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Japan
Kenya
Latvia
Montenegro
Morocco
Nigeria
Niue
North Macedonia
Norway
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Russia
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Thailand
Turkiye
Ukraine
Uruguay
Vanuatu

Group D - 1 team - Estonia - Purely because they still appear on the International Rugby League rankings list despite having not played a game since 2009:
Estonia

POINTS SYSTEM
There's a lot to go through here.

World Cup
The Number of World Cups participated in from (and including) 2000-2024 is multiplied by 2.5
Extra Points are awarded for more recent World Cup appearances
2022 RLWC = 10 Points
2017 RLWC = 7 Points
2013 RLWC = 5 Points
2008 RLWC = 3 Points
2000 RLWC = 1 Point

World Cup Results
Teams will earn points based on their performance in the World Cup after the Group stages

Eliminated in First round of play-offs = 3 Points
Eliminated in Semi Finals (Final 4) = 6 Points
Runners-Up = 12 Points
World Cup Winner = 25 Points

Emerging Nations World Cup

The Number of Emerging Nations World Cups participated in from (and including) 2000-2024 is multiplied by 1.5
Extra Points are awarded for more recent Emerging Nations World Cup appearances.
2018 ENWC = 2 Points
2000 RLWC = 1 Point

Group Bonus
Bonus Points awarded based on the group a team is in:
Group A = 200 Points
Group B = 125 Points
Group C = 50 Points
Group D = 0 Points

Now we get to the tricky stuff.

Graded Performances
Teams earn points for wins, lose points for losses and these points are on a sliding scale depending on the strength of their opponent:

Group A def Group A = 3 Points
Group A def Group B = 1.5 Points
Group A def Group C = 0.5 Points

Group B def Group A = 4 Points
Group B def Group B = 2 Points
Group B def Group C = 1 Point

Group C def Group A = 5 Points
Group C def Group B = 3 Points
Group C def Group C = 1.5 Points

Group A lose to Group A = -3 Points
Group A lose to Group B = -4 Points
Group A lose to Group C = -5 Points

Group B lose to Group A = -1.5 Points
Group B lose to Group B = -2 Points
Group B lose to Group C = -3 Point

Group C lose to Group A = -0.5 Points
Group C lose to Group B = -1 Points
Group C lose to Group C = -1.5 Points

Also, a draw between two teams in the same group = 1 Point
A draw between Team A and Team B or Team B and Team C = Higher ranked side gets 0.5 points, Lower ranked side gets 1.5 points
A draw between Team A and Team C = Team A gets 0.25 points, Team C gets 2 points

Recency Bias
Points are multiplied by a higher amount for more recent seasons, to give a more reflective form rating:

2015 x1
2016 x2
2017 x3
2018 x4
2019 x5
2020 x6
2021 x7
2022 x8
2023 x9
2024 x10

Frequency of playing
Teams that play more games deserve to be rewarded, irrespective of the result, so teams will get 1 point for every match they've played in the last 10 years.

Strength of Opposition
Following on from the previous metric, teams will be awarded points based on the Group that their opponent falls in:
Number of Games v Group A = x4
Number of Games v Group B = x2
Number of Games v Group C = x1

So with all of that explained, here are the International Rugby League Rankings, mathematically speaking, as at the end of the 2024 season:

1. 775.5 - Australia
2. 700.5 - England
3. 496 - New Zealand
4. 347 - Papua New Guinea
5. 303.5 - Fiji
6. 290 - Netherlands
7. 283.5 - Ireland
8. 273 - Lebanon
9. 256 - Tonga
10. 239.5 - France
11. 233 - Samoa
12. 221.5 - Wales
13. 199.5 - Canada
14. 196.5 - Italy
15. 196 - USA
16. 191 - Serbia
17. 157 - Ukraine
18. 143.5 - Malta
19. 119 - Philippines
20. 116 - Cook Islands
21. 115 - Germany
22. 113.5 - Greece
23. 113.5 - Czech Republic
24. 108.5 - South Africa
25. 105.5 - Niue
26. 101 - Chile
27. 100 - Turkiye
28. 97 - Nigeria
29. 85.5 - Scotland
30. 85.5 - Brazil
31. 81 - Hungary
32. 81 - Japan
33. 80.5 - Belgium
34. 78.5 - Poland
35. 76 - Norway
36. 72.5 - Spain
37. 72 - Sweden
38. 70 - Russia
39. 67.5 - Thailand
40. 66.5 - Solomon Islands
41. 62.5 - Jamaica
42. 62 - Argentina
43. 59.5 - Denmark
44. 59.5 - India
45. 58 - Ghana
46. 56 - Burundi
47. 56 - Democratic Republic of Congo
48. 54 - Morocco
49. 52.5 - Peru
50. 51 - El Salvador
51. 50.5 - Latvia
52. 48.5 - Vanuatu
53. 46 - Bosnia & Herzegovina
54. 39.5 - Uruguay
55. 37 - Albania
56. 32 - Kenya
57. 32 - Montenegro
58. 26.5 - Hong Kong
59. 25 - Bulgaria
60. 19 - Cameroon
61. 18.5 - North Macedonia
62. 16.5 - Colombia
63. 0 - Estonia

The end of every year could see a modification to this system, whereby the top 10 ranked sides become Group A for the upcoming year, The next 10 become Group B etc

Have World Cups every 4 years and Emerging Nations World Cups every 4 years, but 2 years after each World Cup.

The top 20 teams in the 2 years before each World Cup will compete for the 12 spots in each World Cup.

Teams ranked 21-40 compete for the 12 spots in each Emerging Nations World Cup which means it is possible for Emerging Nations sides to qualify for the World Cup.

Obviously a hose of other purposeful tournaments could also take place, such as the Pacific Cup (but run with 2 groups and then a final between the top side in each group), a European Cup (same system as the Pacific Cup mentioned above) and possibly even an AAA Cup (America's, Asia and Africa)

If we can have a meaningful calendar where all games mean something and have the potential to make teams climb up the rankings towards a potential World Cup berth, that would make for a much more captivating International Calendar.