Stat of Origin (2019)

State of Origin gets underway in 2019 on Wednesday, June 5, in what will be the 40th year that the concept has been taking place. One-off Origin games were played in 1980 and 1981 before adopting the traditional 3 game series from 1982.

Few contests in the world have as much talk about statistics surrounding results as State of Origin though, given how close the contests typically tend to be.

We’ll hear about Queensland’s dominance in recent times, if we’re lucky, we may even be reminded of the ultimate dominance of New South Wales for 70 odd years prior to Origin and how significant that dominance was in building the oft-mentioned “Queenslander spirit and passion.”

But despite the closeness of the contest and all the talk of spirit and passion, there are some statistics that are quite overwhelming that just cannot be ignored, but have yet to be mentioned.

Until now that is.

Game I of the 2019 State of Origin series will take place at Suncorp Stadium. We’ve had 21 Game I matches played at Suncorp Stadium, with Queensland winning 11 and New South Wales 10. The last series openers played at Suncorp have been won by the Blues:
2014 – New South Wales won 12-8
2017 – New South Wales won 28-4

The Maroons last victory at home in Game I was:
2011 – Queensland won 16-12

Of the 11 times Queensland won at home in Game I, two were the first two games in 1980 and 1981, which they won. The remaining 9 saw them go on to win the series on 8 occasions. Only the 2005 series, where they won 24-20 in Game I at Suncorp, saw them lose the series.

For New South Wales, 10 of their wins at Suncorp in Game I has contributed to them winning 7 series.

Winning at Suncorp in Game I is clearly a huge contributor to series success for both sides. This is quite a telling stat. But it’s not the only one.

On 80 of the 103 occasions where a team has lead an Origin game at half-time, they have gone on to win the match. That’s a 77.67% chance of winning the game after leading at the break. Queensland has lead at half time on 49 occasions and won 41 times or 83.67% of the time. New South Wales has lead 54 times and went on to win 39 of those games, at 72.22%.

Teams leading at halftime at Suncorp have gone on to win the match on 82.35% of the time and to drill down even further, teams leading at halftime at Suncorp in Game 1 have won 18 of 21 matches, or 85.71%.

These stats combine to tell us that the opening 40 minutes of the opening State of Origin game this year could very well determine who will not only win the game, but also the series.

Data courtesy of my website Rugby League Project
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Dear Todd, Don't listen to Buzz (2018)

Monday morning before the opening State of Origin battle for the year is upon us and so too are the same people in the media trying to tell Todd Greenberg what to do.

Today it’s Phil Rothfield, appealing to Greenberg “to let the game flow. To instruct the State of Origin I referees to drop the nit-picking that has turned rugby league into a sometimes boring and stop-start snooze fest.”

What is boring is Rothfield’s pathetic nit-picking. His same old stop-start rhetoric is snooze-fest inducing.

More importantly though, Mr Greenberg, I would hate to see the day that the game is run by whatever some tired, whinging dinosaur in the media has to say.

It was their complaints after the Sharks v Storm game, where over 30 penalties were blown and legends Cameron Smith and Luke Lewis both spent time in the sin bin, which fuelled their attacks on the NRL for their unbelievable stance of enforcing the rules.

A few weeks later a total of 14 players were sent to the sin bin in one round, the most in one round in over 20 years.

Not once has any of these detractors employed anything other than the aggressively stupid and damaging tact of blaming referees. The players and clubs are committing the acts and deserve to be punished, yet are being let off and now it seems, have Rothfield suggesting they should be allowed to cheat.

What makes Rothfield’s stance today so much more laughable is the fact he was sooking about referees NOT doing their job properly last year. Now he’s demanding that they don’t do their job properly in 2018. This is enough evidence alone to prove that this man should never have his opinions on how the game should be run listened to, let alone considered.

We also know that refs have a history of being ultra-lenient in Origin games anyway, so there really is no crisis here, bar the one Rothfield is trying to create.

My message to you though Mr Greenberg is simple.

While your suggestion to #TalkTheGameUp is a good one, we are facing a different problem here on two fronts. Media attacking match officials is disgraceful and needs to be addressed, in a firm manner. We all know referees make mistakes, they are humans after all. But the constant denigration and the abhorrent insinuations by some commentators that the referees are trying to get in the spotlight, or the rubbish view of some fans that they are match fixing and the like, need to end. Be as harsh as you need to on this.

Because it leads to a bigger issue and my second point. The message this belittling of referees sends to children. That players are never at fault, it’s the referees who are to blame. Do we really want a game where kids are abusing referees? Or a game where no-one wants to be an official. It’s a hard enough job as it is, they don’t need to cop this verbal diahorrea from cowards that have never once tried their hand at being an official at this level.

Thank you.

Tough 'Tooves' Can Cure NSW's Blues (2017)

Last Sunday, Fox Sports Lara Pitt spoke directly to Phil Gould amidst rumours and speculation that he could be stepping in, as part of a unique trio with Brad Fittler and Andrew Johns, to coach the New South Wales Origin side in 2018.

The most honest and correct statement he made regarding Laurie Daley’s sacking was, “Laurie’s not a professional coach. This is not what he does for a living.”

And that right there hits at 50 percent of the Blues’ issues. He isn’t a professional coach. That is exactly what NSW needs.

This is exactly the same issue that Fittler and Johns have. They may do some assistant coaching on the side – and ‘Freddy’ did coach the Roosters with mixed results a decade ago – but they aren’t full-time professional coaches of football teams.

Fittler and Johns are also very similar to Daley in another aspect. They were all magnificent players, undoubtedly the best of their generation in the world. But they are all laidback characters.

With stories emerging such as Josh Dugan and Blake Ferguson having some drinks before engaging in some less-than-professional interior designing of a hotel room prior to Origin II, coupled with the duo’s pub session and Andrew Fifita reportedly forcing Daley to backflip on his decision to have him start from the bench prior to the decider shows that the players did not respect Daley enough.

It’s not because they didn’t think he deserved it. It’s because Daley, like Fittler and Johns, comes across as one of the boys. There’s nothing wrong with that in some team environments. But it clearly doesn’t work for the Blues.

However, there is one coach who oozes passion and professionalism, is a full-time coach, played plenty of Origin footy and is looking for a gig.

Geoff Toovey.

Why hasn’t ‘Tooves’ been put forward as a candidate? The intense Manly club legend and former coach spent 2017 coaching the financial basketcase that is the Bradford Bulls, whose relegation to the third-tier competition would render Toovey too expensive to stay on. He wants to be back in Sydney and ideally at an NRL club.

But while he is yet to be picked up by any club, why not line him up to coach the Blues? 

Furthermore, let him have full control of the side. He doesn’t need helpers like Daley did.

The decision to move Bob Fulton on for this series in favour of Peter Sterling would make the role more enticing for Toovey.

Toovey has bled for the Blues. He demands respect from his players and he is a smart tactician. He has all the qualities required to be an Origin coach.

 
And he will provide them a huge injection of the one thing they need the most: passion.

****This article appeared on Commentary Box Sports website on September 1, 2017****

Forcing a Pearce peg into an Origin hole (2017)

Another year and another State of Origin series falls the way of the Maroons after such a promising start from the Blues.

But this year surely is the one that hurts the most for New South Wales.

They played a Queensland side that has begun its transition from the dynasty to the next young crop of talent. They were without Darius Boyd, Billy Slater and Johnathan Thurston at times and both Greg Inglis and Matt Scott failed to play a part in any of the three games.

Queensland stuck with the as much of the team from 2016 in Game 1 and were belted. They rang in the changes for Game 2 and snuck home. Two more debutants lined up in the decider and Queensland, without Thurston, Boyd, Scott and Inglis, strolled to an easy win over the Blues.

The pre-series talk for New South Wales was about whether Mitch Pearce should be recalled, given his woeful form in Origin. He had been in brilliant form for the Roosters thus far in the season so it seemed a given he be selected.

Then came the assumptions by former players and commentators that the reason New South Wales lost with Pearce in the side was because Farah was too dominant and overcalled Pearce.

So Farah was not picked. Instead the selectors went with a new option, the talented Nathan Peats.

What transpired though was Peats became nothing more than a tackling, stand and pass merchant, denied the opportunity to show any creativity at all. Across all 3 of his Origin games, he ran the ball 6 times, had 0 line breaks, 0 try assists, 0 offloads and 0 line break assists.

All of this was done so that Pearce could have full control of the team and be comfortable to play at his best.

Pearce produced 0 line breaks, 0 try assists and 0 line break assists. He continued to kick the ball directly to Queensland’s back three. Every time.

He ran the same play, over and over again, slowly and poorly.

He regularly botched small plays with his team mate from the Roosters Boyd Cordner.

Many will say that it is hard for a halfback to play at their peak when their forwards are struggling. And to a degree it’s true. But if you had a hooker who was either prepared, or perhaps allowed, to make a few dummy half scoots to try and get the defence back pedalling, more often than once every half, that would help the halfback.

You can see in Cameron Smith’s stats across the 3 Origin games how vital it can be to have your rake running the ball. In Game 1 he made 3 runs for just 9 metres. In Game 3 he made 18 runs for 112 metres. Peats made around 30 metres in his first two games and a miserly 3 metres in Game 3.

Only one player in the Blues spine pulled their weight and it was Fullback James Tedesco, while James Maloney was passable at best. He made 3 of their 6 line breaks (Maloney made the other 3), 3 of their 5 try assists (Maloney had the other 2) and all 3 of their line break assists.

Also, stop picking fullbacks in the centres. Sure Hayne and Dugan have had some good games there, but they were defensively poor and more often than not, failed to get their wingers any decent opportunities, on the rare occasions that they did pass the ball.

Woods was largely useless, even in the opening game, Fifita was heavily targeted in the second and third games after a barnstorming Origin opener. Frizell’s NRL form didn’t carry over and he failed to have much impact while Jackson was great in Game 2, he seems to be lacking in attack.

But one thing that hasn’t changed is the style of play and the stubbornness to persist with a failed half. Coach Laurie Daley has been incessantly hammering the large square peg of Pearce into the small round hole of being an Origin quality halfback.

It’s time for Daley to go. It’s time for Mitchell Pearce to go. If neither happens soon, Queensland will have replaced the likes of Smith, Cronk, Thurston, Slater, Boyd, Scott and Inglis and will be embarking on yet another dynasty, while Laurie Daley continues hammering away trying to make a squad of 16 work around 1 player who simply isn’t good enough and doesn’t deserve the opportunity any more.