NRL Title Contenders: Canberra Raiders (2016)

After an inconsistent opening 10 rounds, where they won four games, lost five and drew with the last-placed Knights, the Raiders have really turned their season around. The Green Machine have won 11 of their last 12 games, including the last eight straight. In the process they have racked up some big scores.

Why They Can Win

Their attack. They have scored more points than any other side this year, at an average of 26.91 per game. Only twice in the Raiders’ history have they performed better in attack: in 1994 when they scored 779 points in 26 games at 29.96 and the following year in 1995 when they scored 654 points in 24 games at 27.25. 

They have great ball-runners on both sides of the field, up front, out wide and – courtesy of hooker Josh Hodgson and five-eighth Blake Austin – in the middle as well. This running game has been the cornerstone of their recent success and it seems that no team has found a way to shut it down. Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana have formed one of the most lethal combinations in the NRL on the right, while captain and left centre Jarrod Croker is in career-best touch.

Why They Can’t

This Raiders outfit lacks the big-game experience required to win grand finals. They have six Test players in their side, four of them from New Zealand who are not current members. The only one commanding a Test spot at present also happens to be their only State of Origin player, past or current, Josh Papalii. Joey Leilua (2010 with the Roosters) is the only Raider to have played in a grand final – besides out-of-favour veteran Jeff Lima – while no other player in the squad has ventured beyond the second week of the finals. Their halves don’t have a finals appearance between them.

Key Player

Josh Hodgson. The British rake has been arguably the best buy the Raiders have made in a long, long time, possibly since current coach Ricky Stuart was lured to the club in 1988 from Rugby Union. His passing is sharp, his service is impeccable, he is controlled and isdictating the momentum of games brilliantly. He has an immense forward pack which he has been getting the maximum value out of as well.

Squad Health

The Raiders squad is in tip-top shape. They only have two depth players currently injured. Lachlan Croker is out for the season with a knee injury, while winger Edrick Lee’s calf injury will see him sidelined until the week before the finals begin.

Finals Record

Canberra has appeared in 43 finals matches, winning 20 and losing 23. However, they have won just 5 of their last 19 finals games, dating back to the 1995 preliminary final that they lost against the Bulldogs. The club has not been beyond week two of the playoffs since that ’95 campaign.

Run Home

Canberra played their last home in Round 24, running down Parramatta 28-18. They now travel to Brookvale Oval in what is always a tough encounter, no matter the form of either side. The Wests Tigers are their Round 26 assignment at Leichhardt Oval, yet another tough venue to win at – particularly if the Tigers are still in finals contention. Canberra have won just nine of 25 games at Brookvale and nine of 21 games at Leichhardt. Nevertheless, the club has secured its first top-four berth in 13 years.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

The Halftime Spray #16 (2014)

Last week, Jeremy Hawkins was denied his opportunity to play for the Canberra Raiders in the NRL due to the second tier salary cap. In February this year this cap was amended and increased from $375,000 to $440,000 in an attempt to allay this issue.

Alas, it has failed. Why? Because it was a band aid fix to a bigger issue that could be solved quite easily.

Every year, each club has to name a full 25 man squad, players whose salaries fall under the NRL Salary Cap for their respective clubs.

This is where the problem lies. Squad sizes of 25 are just too small. Of the 173 squads from 2004 til 2013, there have been just 8 which finished the season using 25 players or less.

In the same time, there have been 13 occasions where a side has used 34 players or more.

The most common number of players a club uses in a year:

29 players - 28 occasions
28 players - 25 occasions
30 players - 19 occasions
27 players - 16 occasions
26 players - 15 occasions
31 players - 14 occasions
33 players - 10 occasions
32 players - 9 occasions
23 to 25 players - 8 occasions

Even after 18 rounds this year, nearly all the teams have used more than 25 players already.

To add to this absurd squad figure of 25 is this alarming fact: The last time every team in the competition had 25 players or less in the same season was in 1950.

It's pretty clear that a typical squad size in the modern day game is 30 players.

Having restrictions preventing new players from covering for injured players in the NRL side is absurd. We should be giving young players every opportunity they can to play at an elite level.

The NRL should also be employing good occupational health and safety practices, where possible in a contact sport, by allowing clubs to replace injured players without penalty and without forcing injured players to continue playing, so as to help the club remain under the salary cap.

Especially given the comments by Robbie Farah a few weeks ago that suggested none of the NRL players are insured.

All the NRL needs to do to fix this issue is increase squad sizes to 30. To accommodate the extra players, increase the salary cap by a million dollars.

This would ensure that players outside the 30 man squad will be able to play without the club breaching the second tier salary cap, players won't be playing injured, more players will get exposure to the NRL thus creating a larger talent pool, which is a great thing if the NRL continues to plan towards introducing new teams in the near future.

The Halftime Spray #10 (2014)

This week the guessing game surrounding James Tedesco's home in 2015 was finally settled, when he agreed to a three year deal at the Canberra Raiders.

The decision though raises a few questions, not about the deal itself, many of which have seen heated debates across the League Unlimited forums:

Players should do their contract negotiations in the off season.Teams signing players mid-season has long caused ire amongst most fans. Watching a player wearing your teams colours, knowing that they won't be doing so the following year. Wondering if said player is focussed on the current season. Questioning if they are putting in enough effort etc.

These are legitimate concerns and fans could not be excused for thinking any of these. If players are allowed to negotiate and make deals about where they are playing the following year, then why not go all the way and just have a mid-season transfer window. If a player agrees to a contract mid-season with another side, he should be allowed to switch to that side straight away. The new club then takes over his remaining salary for the current year.

Should a player who has been signed mid-season be retained in the first grade side?
This is a very tricky question. In the case of Tedesco, he is the Wests Tigers best fullback, but if the club has decided that it won't shop around for a replacement, then they should continue working towards their plan of improvement in 2015. 

Why should the club enhance a departing player's credentials and abilities and suppress that of a retained player? In the Tedesco case, by playing him, his current side would only be helping Canberra at the detriment of the Wests Tigers. In other cases, the side may be a strong premiership chance and will use that player to help reach that greatest of goals.

Should players who leave a club purely for more money be seen in a poor light?
It's understandable for fans to instantly turn on a player after they've announced they are changing clubs and receiving a bigger salary. Loyalty is raised a lot in the modern game, but isn't really shown by any parties (the teams, the players or the governing body) anywhere near as much as it used to, or should do. In short, any player who has the good fortune to be offered a high salary is most likely going to take it. Rugby League players have around a decade to earn essentially the majority of their 40 years of income. If a seemingly injury prone player is in the same situation, then he is even more inclined to take the bigger money offer.

Should the NRL be doing more to reward clubs who produce more local junior talent than others, to help those clubs retain those players when they hit the NRL?Short answer is no. You can't force players to play at particular clubs. Furthermore, some clubs are fortunate to have vastly larger and stronger junior pools to select their future stars from than other clubs. The main priority is ensuring as many of these young players get to play in the NRL.

Some people believe in the romantic concept where loyalty prevails over greed, but in today's world, especially in professional sports, such a concept is becoming more and more rare.

Rugby League is a business. Players are assets. Fans are consumers.