After an
inconsistent opening 10 rounds, where they won four games, lost five and drew
with the last-placed Knights, the Raiders have really turned their season
around. The Green Machine have won 11 of their last 12 games, including the
last eight straight. In the process they have racked up some big scores.
Why They
Can Win
Their attack.
They have scored more points than any other side this year, at an average of
26.91 per game. Only twice in the Raiders’ history have they performed better
in attack: in 1994 when they scored 779 points in 26 games at 29.96 and the
following year in 1995 when they scored 654 points in 24 games at 27.25.
They
have great ball-runners on both sides of the field, up front, out wide and –
courtesy of hooker Josh Hodgson and five-eighth Blake Austin – in the middle as
well. This running game has been the cornerstone of their recent success and it
seems that no team has found a way to shut it down. Joey Leilua and Jordan
Rapana have formed one of the most lethal combinations in the NRL on the right,
while captain and left centre Jarrod Croker is in career-best touch.
Why They
Can’t
This
Raiders outfit lacks the big-game experience required to win grand finals. They
have six Test players in their side, four of them from New Zealand who are not
current members. The only one commanding a Test spot at present also happens to
be their only State of Origin player, past or current, Josh Papalii. Joey
Leilua (2010 with the Roosters) is the only Raider to have played in a grand
final – besides out-of-favour veteran Jeff Lima – while no other player in the
squad has ventured beyond the second week of the finals. Their halves don’t
have a finals appearance between them.
Key
Player
Josh
Hodgson. The British rake has been arguably the best buy the Raiders have made
in a long, long time, possibly since current coach Ricky Stuart was lured to
the club in 1988 from Rugby Union. His passing is sharp, his service is
impeccable, he is controlled and isdictating the momentum of games brilliantly.
He has an immense forward pack which he has been getting the maximum value out
of as well.
Squad
Health
The
Raiders squad is in tip-top shape. They only have two depth players currently
injured. Lachlan Croker is out for the season with a knee injury, while winger
Edrick Lee’s calf injury will see him sidelined until the week before the finals
begin.
Finals
Record
Canberra
has appeared in 43 finals matches, winning 20 and losing 23. However, they have
won just 5 of their last 19 finals games, dating back to the 1995 preliminary
final that they lost against the Bulldogs. The club has not been beyond week
two of the playoffs since that ’95 campaign.
Run Home
Canberra played their last home in Round 24,
running down Parramatta 28-18. They now travel to Brookvale Oval in what is
always a tough encounter, no matter the form of either side. The Wests Tigers
are their Round 26 assignment at Leichhardt Oval, yet another tough venue to
win at – particularly if the Tigers are still in finals contention. Canberra
have won just nine of 25 games at Brookvale and nine of 21 games at Leichhardt.
Nevertheless, the club has secured its first top-four berth in 13 years.**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**
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