NRL Title Contenders: Brisbane Broncos (2016)

After their heartbreaking loss in last year’s grand final, the Broncos started the 2016 season with some serious intent to reverse the result. They won eight of their opening 10 games to lead the competition, but the wheels well and truly fell off during the middle of the season, where they won just two of nine games to drop down to sixth place and started looking like they could miss the playoffs altogether. However, Wayne Bennett’s side has rallied with four straight wins to cement their place in the September action and have another tilt at the title.

Why They Can Win
Balance. The Broncos have a long history of being a well-balanced side, across the park in both attack and defence. They have a good mix of experienced stars and exciting younger players. They have also been a team well-stocked with Test reps, and this year’s outfit is no different, sporting six Australian, four New Zealand, two English and one Tongan Test players. That big-game experience is a huge bonus for the Broncos.

Why They Can’t
Inconsistency in the halves. Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford have produced the most erratic form of any halves in the comp. For the opening 10 weeks they were sublime. They were controlling games and steering their side’s attack around beautifully. It was expected things wouldn’t change during the Origin period when both would be playing against depleted outfits, but it was during this time that their red-hot form went ice cold overnight. It took another 10 weeks for them to finally start recovering their early season form. If Hunt and Milford struggle during the finals, they will not be posing a threat to any of the other sides. Their kicking game and fifth-tackle options still need work, while Hunt’s 2015 grand final horror show could provide a mental roadblock if the Broncos make it that far again.

Key Player
Ben Hunt. When he is playing well, the Broncos generally win. He has a great running game and links with his edge runners beautifully. But he has had a knack this year for going off the boil, hard and fast. If the Broncos forwards can lay a solid platform and provide good momentum then Hunt will be able to play to his best.

Squad Health
The Broncos are without the services of centre Jack Reed due to a shoulder injury which he sustained after the Round 13 clash with the Warriors. It is still unclear when he will resume playing, though rookie Tom Opacic is settling into the role superbly. Utility Kodi Nikorima also has a shoulder injury but is expected to be back in Round 26.

Finals Record
Brisbane have played in 53 finals matches, picking up 28 wins and 25 losses. Last year was the club’s first loss in seven grand final appearances. Since last winning the premiership in 2006, the Broncos have won seven and lost seven in the post-season.

Run Home
The Broncos pulled off a momentous upset of the Melbourne Storm in Round 25, while in the final regular-season round the host a Roosters side who only four weeks ago beat them resoundingly, 32-16. The Broncos can snatch fourth spot if they beat the Roosters and the Cowboys go down to Titans, but a week one sudden-death match-up with the Titans or Tigers at Suncorp looms as the most likely outcome.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: North Queensland Cowboys (2016)

The defending champions started the season strongly, and despite losing two of their first four games, they were spirited efforts against strong sides. The Cowboys then won five straight to lead the competition, but since then they have won just seven of 14 games.

Their Round 24 victory over the Warriors was only their second in seven weeks, but that performance – along with a gritty away defeat of Canterbury on Thursday – was a return to their early-season, indicating they are hitting form at the perfect time.

Why They Can Win
They know how. After breaking through for their maiden premiership victory last year, the Cowboys side this year is near identical to last year’s squad. They have experienced players at club and rep level laced throughout the line-up. In the halves are Queensland Origin and Australian Test players Michael Morgan and Johnathan Thurston. The front-row boast Origin and Test stars Matt Scott and James Tamou. The back row consists of veteran and recent Origin debutant Gavin Cooper, and Kiwi Test forward Jason Taumalolo.

The backline contains Maroons centre Justin O’Neill and former Scottish Test player Kane Linnett. Fullback is held down by Lachlan Coote, whose form was so good he was tipped to play Origin this year for New South Wales. Throw in bench players like former Test and Origin rep Ben Hannant and Tongan Test player Patrick Kaufusi, and you have a team that deserves to be considered a favourite to be premiers.

Why They Can’t
Overreliance on their halves. While the Cowboys have arguably the best halves combination in the competition, it therefore means they are the most heavily targeted by opposition defences and attacking back rowers, who make a beeline for them time and again. Despite the club saying that they can win without Thurston, the fact is they very rarely do. This year they have lost all three games he missed, and since 2013, they have won just two of the 11 games Thurston didn’t play. Since coming to the club in 2005, the Cowboys have won 55% of games when Thurston played and 28% when he didn’t. The Cowboys’ strongest asset is also their biggest concern. They need JT on the field if they are to be competitive.

Key Player 
Lachlan Coote. The Cowboys custodian has been able to put an injury-plagued run behind him, culminating in a spectacular season in 2015, carrying that form this season. He provides Thurston with essentially a second five-eighth in attack and is a vital link player. The diminutive Coote has proven to be very capable under the high ball and his positional play is brilliant.

Squad Health 
The Cowboys currently have former Test player Ben Hannant out with a knee injury, while star hooker Jake Granville returned last week from an injured hand. Hannant is expected to return for the last round of the regular season, just in time for the finals.

Finals Record 
The Cowboys have played 20 finals matched, winning 11 and losing nine. They won all three of their four finals matches last year, bouncing back from a week one loss to Brisbane with wins over Cronulla and Melbourne, before defeating the Broncos in the grand final in extra time. Last season marked the first time the Cowboys had progressed beyond week two of the playoffs since 2007.

Run Home
The Cowboys face a difficult last-round assignment to confirm their top-four spot, hosting a Titans side that is playing for a finals berth.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (2016)

All year the Bulldogs have battled with themselves to try and put a run of consistently good performances together. They’ve pulled off some great victories, such as their 18-12 win over Melbourne in Round 6 and a 40-14 walloping of the Broncos in Round 16, but these have been mixed with some scratchy wins and poor losses. They are arguably in their best form of the season now, having won seven of their last nine games which has them sitting fourth on the ladder.

Why They Can Win

Their forwards. The Bulldogs have a huge and aggressive pack, but they aren’t all just bulldozers. They are involved in plays, have a solid passing game and can be found loitering as support players as well. This makes them a handful to contain in the middle and often presents opportunities to their backs. The subtle skill and dynamic impact of James Graham, Sam Kasiano, Greg Eastwood, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson make them a unique team and a hard one to defend against.

Why They Can’t

Inconsistency. All year they have drifted in and out of games, posting big scores like 40 against good defensive units like the Broncos and then a few weeks later, struggling to score 13 points against the weaker defence of the Dragons. They can also let their bundle drop completely despite good form, as seen in Round 20, when the Cowboys beat them 36-0 after the Dogs had won their last four games. Halves Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds, while often brilliant, epitomise that lack of consistency.

Key Player

James Graham. The British prop and Bulldogs captain is a ‘lead by example’ man and he has been in brilliant form all year. He lays the platform via the hard yards up the middle for his fellow big men such as Aiden Tolman, David Klemmer and Sam Kasiano to replicate, which they largely have done. 

This rolling power game up the middle allows the rest of the players time and space on the edges of the ruck to do their thing, while his ball-playing ability renders him arguably the most well-rounded front-rower in the game.

Squad Health

The Bulldogs are only missing back-up centre Chase Stanley for the season with a knee injury.

Finals Record 

The Bulldogs have played 92 Finals games, winning 51 games and losing 41. They have won 11 of their last 19 finals matches, dating back to 2004. The club has a reputation for making deep finals runs, qualifying for grand finals from sixth (1995), ninth (1998) and seventh (2014) since the five-team finals series was abandoned.

Run Home

Despite having two home games to close out the season, the Bulldogs by no means have an easy run. On Thursday night they host the resurgent Cowboys, who will be hoping to swap places with the Bulldogs and get back into the top four. Then in the last round they take on Souths, who have finally found some form of late and have a similarly skilled forward pack and dangerous backs such as Greg Inglis and Alex Johnston. Both games will be hard slogs in the middle and could be quite taxing leading into the finals.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Canberra Raiders (2016)

After an inconsistent opening 10 rounds, where they won four games, lost five and drew with the last-placed Knights, the Raiders have really turned their season around. The Green Machine have won 11 of their last 12 games, including the last eight straight. In the process they have racked up some big scores.

Why They Can Win

Their attack. They have scored more points than any other side this year, at an average of 26.91 per game. Only twice in the Raiders’ history have they performed better in attack: in 1994 when they scored 779 points in 26 games at 29.96 and the following year in 1995 when they scored 654 points in 24 games at 27.25. 

They have great ball-runners on both sides of the field, up front, out wide and – courtesy of hooker Josh Hodgson and five-eighth Blake Austin – in the middle as well. This running game has been the cornerstone of their recent success and it seems that no team has found a way to shut it down. Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana have formed one of the most lethal combinations in the NRL on the right, while captain and left centre Jarrod Croker is in career-best touch.

Why They Can’t

This Raiders outfit lacks the big-game experience required to win grand finals. They have six Test players in their side, four of them from New Zealand who are not current members. The only one commanding a Test spot at present also happens to be their only State of Origin player, past or current, Josh Papalii. Joey Leilua (2010 with the Roosters) is the only Raider to have played in a grand final – besides out-of-favour veteran Jeff Lima – while no other player in the squad has ventured beyond the second week of the finals. Their halves don’t have a finals appearance between them.

Key Player

Josh Hodgson. The British rake has been arguably the best buy the Raiders have made in a long, long time, possibly since current coach Ricky Stuart was lured to the club in 1988 from Rugby Union. His passing is sharp, his service is impeccable, he is controlled and isdictating the momentum of games brilliantly. He has an immense forward pack which he has been getting the maximum value out of as well.

Squad Health

The Raiders squad is in tip-top shape. They only have two depth players currently injured. Lachlan Croker is out for the season with a knee injury, while winger Edrick Lee’s calf injury will see him sidelined until the week before the finals begin.

Finals Record

Canberra has appeared in 43 finals matches, winning 20 and losing 23. However, they have won just 5 of their last 19 finals games, dating back to the 1995 preliminary final that they lost against the Bulldogs. The club has not been beyond week two of the playoffs since that ’95 campaign.

Run Home

Canberra played their last home in Round 24, running down Parramatta 28-18. They now travel to Brookvale Oval in what is always a tough encounter, no matter the form of either side. The Wests Tigers are their Round 26 assignment at Leichhardt Oval, yet another tough venue to win at – particularly if the Tigers are still in finals contention. Canberra have won just nine of 25 games at Brookvale and nine of 21 games at Leichhardt. Nevertheless, the club has secured its first top-four berth in 13 years.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**

NRL Title Contenders: Melbourne Storm (2016)

The Storm have always been a side that most people have admired for their clinical attack and teamwork, mostly between the ‘Big Three’ of fullback Billy Slater, halfback Cooper Cronk and rake Cameron Smith.

However this season it has been their uncompromising defence which has carried them to the top of the ladder. Their 22-8 loss to the Raiders in Round 23 was the first time this year that the Storm had conceded more than 20 points in a game (they conceded 20 points twice). They’ve lost just four games in 2016, but have had some patchy moments in their last six games.

Why They Can Win

They have Cameron Smith. This man is so clutch he can win games whenever he wants, say from dummy-half, 30 metres out and needs to pot a field goal. Or perhaps needing to convert a try from the sideline and falls over as he is about to strike the ball, and it still goes over. He’s so cool, his blood has to be heated before it can be drawn. And even as he gets older, his form has barely wavered. 

Combine this with his toughness and amazing ability to avoid serious injury, and you have the backbone of an entire side.

Why They Can’t

Smith and Cronk. While the Storm have a brilliant top 17, they are lacking in depth players when it comes to the spine. The club was forced to rush Cameron Munster’s apprenticeship due to a horror run of injuries for their phenomenal custodian Billy Slater, however Munster has excelled. The back-up options for Smith and Cronk, though, aren’t anywhere near as good as Munster, let alone the men they’d replace. The Storm rely heavily on Smith’s control and Cronk’s planning. If either of them gets injured, or are effectively targeted by opposition defences, the side’s attacking ability becomes nullified very quickly.

Key Player

Jesse Bromwich. Arguably the best prop in the world right now, he’s the go-to man if the Storm’s attack is being shut down. The current Kiwi Test captain isn’t afraid of the dirty work and is a behemoth hitting the ball up, especially when the real hard yards are needed. His work with ball in hand has been able to give Smith and Cronk that little bit more extra time when they need it to pull off important plays. Bromwich’s work is vital to the Storm’s attack and momentum.

Squad Health

The Storm have been without Billy Slater since Round 1 due to a recurring shoulder complaint. Slater has opted to take the season off and get it fixed properly so that he can return fully fit in 2017. The only other injury of note is to Jordan McLean, who sustained an ankle injury in Round 17. He’s expected back in Round 25, just in time to get match-fit before the finals begin.

Finals Record

Melbourne has appeared in 37 finals matches, picking up 22 victories and 15 losses. However, since their salary cap scandal in 2010, they have appeared in 10 finals matches, winning five and losing five. Their recent run of post-season form isn’t very good either, with one win from their last five finals appearances.

Run Home

The Storm have a pretty rough run home, especially after their trip to Canberra saw them come home without the biscuits – although they comfortably accounted for bitter rivals Manly at Brookvale last weekend, 38-18. In Round 25 they host the Broncos and in Round 26 they play what potentially could be the game to determine the minor premiership against the Sharks at AAMI Park.

**This article appeared on the Commentary Box Sports website**